Yodacom
Published research

Research

Yodacom Research publishes quantitative studies on asset-class suitability, execution-cost analysis, and strategy-selection methodologies. We publish negative results when the data demands it. All papers publish complete methodology — sufficient to reproduce every result independently. Implementation code is made available to institutional research partners and subscribers.

Published May 2026

Intelligent Grid Trading: What 13 Years of Crypto Data Actually Shows

We ran a walk-forward backtest of an adaptive grid trading strategy across 17 major cryptocurrencies, 13 years of daily data, and 135 valid test folds. The strategy posts a 100% win rate against buy-and-hold in confirmed bear-market folds, with meaningful capital preservation when markets fall. FIS v2 regime gating improved average alpha from −578% to −464%. Forward confidence: 6.5/10.

Authors
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research AI Team
Window
2011–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
100% bear-fold win rate
Read paper № 1
Published May 2026

Gridium and the Efficient Frontier: Diversification Benefits Across Asset Classes

We examine whether adding a crypto grid trading sleeve to a traditional equity/bond/gold portfolio produces a measurable shift in the efficient frontier. Across nine portfolio-years (2017–2025), we find near-zero correlation between grid strategy returns and equity markets (ρ = 0.02 vs. SPY). The diversification benefit is real but conditional: a 10–20% grid allocation improves portfolio Sharpe in forward-looking scenarios where the strategy generates positive returns, with regime filtering reducing crash-year exposure.

Authors
Han Kessel, Jeremy J. Black
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
ρ = 0.02 vs. SPY
Read research note
Published May 2026

Crypto Grid Trading vs. Options for Income: An Honest Comparison

Options strategies achieve higher Sharpe ratios than our grid strategy. We confirm this and explain why Sharpe is the least interesting fact in this comparison. The complete picture — tail risk, automation feasibility, capital requirements, and crisis behavior — tells a more nuanced story. Neither strategy dominates; which one fits depends on the investor.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2013–2025 (grid); 1986–2025 (options)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Sharpe gap is partly arithmetic, not alpha
Read paper № 2
Published May 2026

Grid Trading in the Modern Crypto Era: 2019–2025

Walk-forward analysis of 85 folds across 17 assets in the modern crypto era. The FIS v2 gate held cash during 71.8% of periods — including all major bear years. Result: 100% bear-fold capital protection across all 29 folds where buy-and-hold fell more than 20%. Mean max drawdown: 1.0% vs. 25.0% for the always-on baseline.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2019–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 85 folds
Key finding
100% bear-fold win rate, 1.0% mean drawdown
Read paper № 8
Published June 2026

The Vault Test: Near-Blind Out-of-Sample Validation of CoinRoc’s Three-State FIS, 2023–2025

FIS thresholds locked before 2023, then run unchanged across 51 out-of-sample folds. Three-state strategy mean: +3.8% vs. +0.6% two-state baseline. Bear-fold win rate: 100% (20/20). The direction guard prevents the momentum sleeve from firing into declining markets by design — the protection story is unchanged from Paper 8.

Authors
Han Kessel · Lando (editorial)
Window
2023–2025 (out-of-sample)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 51 folds
Key finding
+3.2 pp mean improvement, 100% bear-fold win rate
Read the Vault Test
Published June 2026

When the Market Trends Hard, Your Income Strategy Should Step Aside: A Rules-Based Regime Filter for Crypto Income

In 2022, covered call income fell with equity. This paper examines whether crypto grid trading with FIS regime detection offers a structurally different income mechanism — one where income and risk do not share the same source. The ETH 2018 anchor case: buy-and-hold −82.4%, always-on grid −61.6%, FIS-gated 0%. Written for financial advisors navigating the income-in-retirement conversation.

Author
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
FIS gating: −24.2% avg → 0% in defensive periods
Read paper № 3
In progress Pub target · Q2 2026

Execution Cost Impact on Crypto Grid Trading Portfolios

A 2.5-year walk-forward study of crypto grid trading as a candidate sleeve in traditional 60/40 portfolios. Tests the hypothesis that execution cost tier dominates strategy selection at the portfolio level. Pre-registered hypotheses, honest negative results where applicable, cost-tier sensitivity analysis across six execution venues.

Principal researcher
Jeremy J. Black
Window
2022 Q4 – 2025 Q1
Venues tested
6
Peer review
Pending
Abstract coming Q2 2026
Planned

Sortino Sensitivity: Does Downside-Deviation-Aware Rating Improve Grid Trading Outcomes?

Companion paper to Gridium. Re-runs the walk-forward analysis using a four-component grader (ETS, Grid Return, Calmar, Sortino) closer to CoinRoc's production rating weights. Tests whether downside-deviation-aware selection meaningfully changes per-quarter sleeve composition and risk-adjusted outcomes.

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