Yodacom
Published research

Research

Yodacom Research publishes quantitative studies on asset-class suitability, execution-cost analysis, and strategy-selection methodologies. We publish negative results when the data demands it. All papers publish complete methodology — sufficient to reproduce every result independently. Implementation code is made available to institutional research partners and subscribers.

Published May 2026

Intelligent Grid Trading: What 13 Years of Crypto Data Actually Shows

We ran a walk-forward backtest of an adaptive grid trading strategy across 17 major cryptocurrencies, 13 years of daily data, and 135 valid test folds. The strategy posts a 100% win rate against buy-and-hold in confirmed bear-market folds, with meaningful capital preservation when markets fall. RXI v2 regime gating improved average alpha from −578% to −464%. Forward confidence: 6.5/10.

Authors
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research AI Team
Window
2011–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
100% bear-fold win rate
Read paper № 1
Published May 2026

Gridium and the Efficient Frontier: Diversification Benefits Across Asset Classes

We examine whether adding a crypto grid trading sleeve to a traditional equity/bond/gold portfolio produces a measurable shift in the efficient frontier. Across nine portfolio-years (2017–2025), we find near-zero correlation between grid strategy returns and equity markets (ρ = 0.02 vs. SPY). The diversification benefit is real but conditional: a 10–20% grid allocation improves portfolio Sharpe in forward-looking scenarios where the strategy generates positive returns, with regime filtering reducing crash-year exposure.

Authors
Han Kessel, Jeremy J. Black
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
ρ = 0.02 vs. SPY
Read research note
Published May 2026

Crypto Grid Trading vs. Options for Income: An Honest Comparison

Options strategies achieve higher Sharpe ratios than our grid strategy. We confirm this and explain why Sharpe is the least interesting fact in this comparison. The complete picture — tail risk, automation feasibility, capital requirements, and crisis behavior — tells a more nuanced story. Neither strategy dominates; which one fits depends on the investor.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2013–2025 (grid); 1986–2025 (options)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Sharpe gap is partly arithmetic, not alpha
Read paper № 2
Published May 2026

Grid Trading in the Modern Crypto Era: 2019–2025

Walk-forward analysis of 85 folds across 17 assets in the modern crypto era. The RXI v2 gate held cash during 71.8% of periods — including all major bear years. Result: 100% bear-fold capital protection across all 29 folds where buy-and-hold fell more than 20%. Mean max drawdown: 1.0% vs. 25.0% for the always-on baseline.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2019–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 85 folds
Key finding
100% bear-fold win rate, 1.0% mean drawdown
Read paper № 8
Published June 2026

The Vault Test: Near-Blind Out-of-Sample Validation of CoinRoc’s Three-State RXI, 2023–2025

RXI thresholds locked before 2023, then run unchanged across 51 out-of-sample folds. Three-state strategy mean: +3.8% vs. +0.6% two-state baseline. Bear-fold win rate: 100% (20/20). The direction guard prevents the momentum sleeve from firing into declining markets by design — the protection story is unchanged from Paper 8.

Authors
Han Kessel · Lando (editorial)
Window
2023–2025 (out-of-sample)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 51 folds
Key finding
+3.2 pp mean improvement, 100% bear-fold win rate
Read the Vault Test
Published June 2026

When the Market Trends Hard, Your Income Strategy Should Step Aside: A Rules-Based Regime Filter for Crypto Income

In 2022, covered call income fell with equity. This paper examines whether crypto grid trading with RXI regime detection offers a structurally different income mechanism — one where income and risk do not share the same source. The ETH 2018 anchor case: buy-and-hold −82.4%, always-on grid −61.6%, RXI-gated 0%. Written for financial advisors navigating the income-in-retirement conversation.

Author
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
RXI gating: −24.2% avg → 0% in defensive periods
Read paper № 3
Published June 2026

What the 2020–2025 Crypto Cycle Reveals About Rules-Based Income — And Why 2022 Changed the Conversation

In 2022, Bitcoin fell 65% and the median crypto asset lost 72.7% of its value. An RXI™-gated, rules-based grid system held flat and compounded — finishing the full cycle at $19,609 on a $10,000 start, edging the S&P 500's $18,703. Here is the mechanism and what it means for the advisor conversation.

Author
Jeremy J. Black, CFP · Yodacom Research
Window
2020–2025 (complete modern cycle)
Key finding
L3 +11.9% CAGR vs. S&P 500 +11.0% (simulated)
Audience
Financial advisors / RIAs
Read article
Published June 2026

Exchange Costs, Maker/Taker Execution, and Their Quantified Impact on Grid Trading Returns

A 37-fold difference in annual fees. A 35.2% taker fill rate under standard GTC orders. GTX post-only enforcement improved average grid returns from −9.99% to +4.73% — with the mechanism being crash prevention, not fee saving. Full walk-forward study across 4 symbols, 36 folds, 2013–2025.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2013–2025
Assets / Folds
4 symbols · 36 folds
Key finding
GTX: −9.99% → +4.73% avg return (+14.7pp)
Read paper B5
Published June 2026

Your LP Yield Calculator Is Lying to You: Impermanent Loss, Continuous Fee Income, and the CoinRoc Optimization Framework

Uniswap v3 shows gross fee APY. It omits impermanent loss. Loesch et al. (2021) found LPs earned $199M in fees but incurred $260M in IL — net −$61M. This paper presents the structured approach to concentrated LP that generates real fee income while keeping IL quantifiable. 5,000-iteration Monte Carlo. 9 data figures.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Audience
Advisors, quant practitioners, DeFi participants
Key finding
B-tier Arbitrum RXI-gated: +15.2% net APY [+14.3%, +16.1% CI]
Novel finding
Rating inversion: A-tier worst LP candidates, B-tier sweet spot
Read research
Published June 2026

Inventory-Aware Grid Management: A Regime-Adaptive Circuit Breaker for Crypto Grid Strategies

RXI v2 monitors market structure from the outside. The inventory circuit breaker monitors the portfolio's own balance sheet from the inside. Walk-forward validation across 17 symbols and 135 folds: zero spurious fires in 28 bull folds; 70.6% detection in 17 confirmed 2022 bear folds; +5.09% average alpha improvement when fired. Five-iteration gate design documented.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black, Editor
Window
2013–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Zero spurious bull fires; +5.09% avg alpha in bear folds
Read paper B6
Published June 2026

Cross-Asset Efficient Frontier: Grid Trading as a Portfolio Diversifier

Near-zero correlation with US equities (ρ ≈ +0.02 over nine backtested years). The full allocation sweep shows no Sharpe-positive grid allocation in the 9-year historical dataset — and shows a marginal +0.03 improvement at 10–20% under a +8% forward-return scenario. Both stories presented together, as Matlock requires.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2017–2025 (9 years)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
ρ = 0.02 vs. SPY; conditional diversification benefit
Read paper B7
Published June 2026

We Ran a CoinRoc Out-of-Sample Forward Simulation Through a Bear Market — Here’s What Happened to Drawdown

A 74-day out-of-sample forward simulation of CoinRoc’s RXI grid sleeve through the April–June 2026 Bitcoin bear market. No real capital. No look-ahead enforced at code level. The RXI engine fired 92 suspend and 83 resume events. The regime detection layer did exactly what it was designed to do.

Author
Yodacom Research
Window
April 14 – June 27, 2026 (74 days)
Symbols
10 (RXI-rated grid sleeve)
Type
Out-of-sample forward simulation
Read live sim article
Published June 2026

Does Algorithmic Grid Trading Belong in a Satellite Allocation? A Due-Diligence Evaluation Framework

Near-zero correlation with equities (ρ ≈ +0.02 over nine observation years) and specific fee structure implications set grid trading apart from passive crypto exposure. Post-only enforcement improved average returns from −9.99% to +4.73% — the single largest return driver in the research. Five questions a rigorous evaluation would address. The honest version of the allocation case.

Author
Jeremy J. Black, Founder, Yodacom
Window
2013–2025 (walk-forward)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Post-only enforcement: +14.7pp avg return improvement
Read article B2
Published June 2026

How CoinRoc Knows When to Step Aside: Understanding the RXI Regime Engine

RXI fuses four mathematical signals — ADX (trend strength), Hurst exponent (mean-reversion vs. persistence), Shannon and Tsallis entropy (order vs. noise), and ATR (volatility scale) — into a confidence-weighted regime call. When it fires TREND_FOLLOWING, grid deployment pauses automatically, without a user confirmation step. ETH 2018 anchor case: buy-and-hold −82%, always-on grid −62%, RXI-gated 0% (hypothetical, backtested).

Registry ID
FIS-LESSON-01
Audience
CoinRoc users · Financial professionals
Key finding
RXI gating: −24% avg → 0% in 47 defensive periods
Channel
yodacom.com/research
Read lesson
Published July 2026

Why a Quality Grade Must Reflect What You Can Actually Trade

Two methodology corrections to CoinRoc's asset grading system: active-period return instead of blended return, and a liquidity-aware grade cap. Why a strong backtest can now result in a lower published grade — and why that is correct. Written for advisors and RIAs evaluating grid strategies for client due diligence.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Audience
Financial advisors, RIAs, wealth managers
Key finding
27/37 wrongly-hidden assets restored to Discovery
Novel finding
32/97 assets flagged thin liquidity; 0 majors capped
Read advisor article
Published July 2026

Execution-Aware Grading: Why CoinRoc Measures What You Can Actually Trade

Full methodology paper (Sections 1–6): the blended-return bias and the liquidity-optimism bias, diagnosed and corrected, with complete findings on the 97-symbol catalog. Sections 7–10 (favorable-conditions affirmative case) are held pending a separate review.

Author
Han Kessel · Yodacom Research
Window
Year 2 blind forward test, retail-binance-us tier
Key finding
Active-period return replaces blended return
Novel finding
Composite liquidity score + B- grade cap
Read methodology
Published July 2026

Crypto's Boring Era Needs a Boring Layer Nobody's Building

Banks are quietly rebuilding treasury and payments infrastructure around condition-gated automatic settlement — money that moves itself when a condition is met. SSL made the internet boring enough to trust with money. Programmable settlement needs the same boring, invisible check, running the instant before the money moves. A reaction to a Blockchain Income Report Substack piece on stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized bank deposits.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Reaction essay / market commentary
Key argument
Condition checks, not just faster rails, are the missing layer
Registry ID
LANDO-PRESIGATE-BORING-LAYER-ESSAY-01
Read the essay
Published July 2026

The Internet Just Shipped a “Pay” Button for AI Agents. Nobody Wired in the Pause.

The Linux Foundation's new x402 Foundation standardizes how AI agents pay over HTTP — a genuinely good, 40-member coalition of card networks, hyperscalers, and stablecoin ecosystems. The protocol's own spec explicitly puts client-side budget management and session handling out of scope. That's the gap Presigate's pre-flight gate sits in: not how the payment happens, but whether right now is a sane moment for it to clear.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Reaction essay / market commentary
Key argument
x402 standardizes how agents pay; Presigate answers whether they should, right now
Registry ID
LANDO-X402-ESSAY-01
Read the essay
Published July 2026

When Machines Transact: Why the Stablecoin Behind an AI Agent’s Payment Is a Risk Decision, Not a Technical Default

x402 today is functionally a USDC rail settling on Base and Solana. But peg-deviation risk (USDC/SVB, March 2023) and issuer/regulatory-state risk (USDT/MiCA delisting, July 2026) are two distinct failure modes that no agent-payment protocol currently checks before it settles. A four-signal framework for the pre-flight check that's missing, tied to Presigate's market-condition-gate positioning.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Thought leadership / strategic
Key argument
Peg-deviation risk and issuer/regulatory-state risk are distinct, both unchecked pre-settlement
Registry ID
LANDO-STABLECOIN-AGENTS-YODACOM-01
Read the article
In progress Pub target · Q2 2026

Execution Cost Impact on Crypto Grid Trading Portfolios

A 2.5-year walk-forward study of crypto grid trading as a candidate sleeve in traditional 60/40 portfolios. Tests the hypothesis that execution cost tier dominates strategy selection at the portfolio level. Pre-registered hypotheses, honest negative results where applicable, cost-tier sensitivity analysis across six execution venues.

Principal researcher
Jeremy J. Black
Window
2022 Q4 – 2025 Q1
Venues tested
6
Peer review
Pending
Abstract coming Q2 2026
Planned

Sortino Sensitivity: Does Downside-Deviation-Aware Rating Improve Grid Trading Outcomes?

Companion paper to Gridium. Re-runs the walk-forward analysis using a four-component grader (ETS, Grid Return, Calmar, Sortino) closer to CoinRoc's production rating weights. Tests whether downside-deviation-aware selection meaningfully changes per-quarter sleeve composition and risk-adjusted outcomes.

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