YodaCom
Published research

Research

Yodacom Research publishes quantitative studies on asset-class suitability, execution-cost analysis, and strategy-selection methodologies. We publish negative results when the data demands it. All papers publish complete methodology — sufficient to reproduce every result independently. Implementation code is made available to institutional research partners and subscribers.

Published May 2026

Intelligent Grid Trading: What 13 Years of Crypto Data Actually Shows

This paper asked how an adaptive grid trading strategy performs in a walk-forward backtest across 17 cryptocurrencies, and how regime gating changes the picture. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research AI Team
Window
2011–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper № 1
Published May 2026

Gridium and the Efficient Frontier: Diversification Benefits Across Asset Classes

This note asked whether adding a crypto grid trading sleeve to an equity, bond, and gold portfolio shifts the efficient frontier. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel, Jeremy J. Black
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read research note
Published May 2026

Crypto Grid Trading vs. Options for Income: An Honest Comparison

This paper asked how crypto grid trading compares with systematic options-for-income strategies on risk-adjusted return, tail risk, capital requirements, and automation. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2013–2025 (grid); 1986–2025 (options)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper № 2
Published May 2026

Grid Trading in the Modern Crypto Era: 2019–2025

This paper asked how a regime-gated grid strategy behaves in a walk-forward study of the 2019–2025 market era. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2019–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 85 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper № 8
Published June 2026

The Vault Test: Near-Blind Out-of-Sample Validation of CoinRoc’s Three-State RXI, 2023–2025

This study asked whether regime thresholds fixed before 2023 held up when applied unchanged to 2023–2025 data. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel · Lando (editorial)
Window
2023–2025 (out-of-sample)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 51 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read the Vault Test
Published June 2026

When the Market Trends Hard, Your Income Strategy Should Step Aside: A Rules-Based Regime Filter for Crypto Income

This paper asked whether crypto grid trading with RXI regime detection offers an income mechanism that is structurally different from equity-linked income strategies. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Author
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research
Window
2017–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper № 3
Published June 2026

What the 2020–2025 Crypto Cycle Reveals About Rules-Based Income — And Why 2022 Changed the Conversation

This article asked how a rules-based, regime-gated grid system would have behaved through the 2020–2025 crypto cycle, and what that means for the advisor conversation. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Author
Jeremy J. Black · Yodacom Research
Window
2020–2025 (complete modern cycle)
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Audience
Financial advisors / RIAs
Read article
Results withdrawn June 2026

Exchange Costs and Maker/Taker Execution for Grid Trading

How standard GTC orders can fill as taker in retail grid trading, and what post-only execution changes. Fee figures and simulated returns have been withdrawn while we intend to republish with current, sourced fee schedules and a rebuilt simulator.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Status
Fee figures withdrawn
Results
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper B5
Results withdrawn June 2026

Concentrated Liquidity Provision: Fee Income, Impermanent Loss, and What a Yield Calculator Leaves Out

Uniswap v3 shows gross fee APY. It omits impermanent loss. Loesch et al. (2021) found LPs earned $199M in fees but incurred $260M in IL — net −$61M. Simulated results from this paper have been withdrawn while CoinRoc rebuilds its simulator with stricter assumptions.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Audience
Advisors, quant practitioners, DeFi participants
Method
Monte Carlo simulation of LP fee income; hypothetical, not a forecast
Read research
Published June 2026

Inventory-Aware Grid Management: A Regime-Adaptive Circuit Breaker for Crypto Grid Strategies

This paper asked whether a rule that monitors a grid's own inventory and drawdown could limit losses in sustained downtrends without interfering in rising markets. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black, Editor
Window
2013–2025
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper B6
Published June 2026

Cross-Asset Efficient Frontier: Grid Trading as a Portfolio Diversifier

This paper asked whether adding a crypto grid sleeve to a traditional portfolio changes the portfolio's risk and return. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Authors
Han Kessel · Jeremy J. Black
Window
2017–2025 (9 years)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read paper B7
Results withdrawn June 2026

CoinRoc in a Bear Market: An Out-of-Sample Forward Simulation

This article has been withdrawn while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions. Earlier versions reported simulated results; we are not presenting them.

Author
Yodacom Research
Status
Results withdrawn
Type
Out-of-sample forward simulation (withdrawn)
Read withdrawal notice
Published June 2026

Does Algorithmic Grid Trading Belong in a Satellite Allocation? A Due-Diligence Evaluation Framework

This article asked what a rigorous due-diligence process would ask about an algorithmic grid trading strategy considered for a satellite allocation. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Author
Jeremy J. Black, Founder, Yodacom
Window
2013–2025 (walk-forward)
Assets / Folds
17 symbols · 135 folds
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Read article B2
Published June 2026

How CoinRoc Knows When to Step Aside: Understanding the RXI Regime Engine

RXI fuses four mathematical signals — ADX (trend strength), Hurst exponent (mean-reversion vs. persistence), Shannon and Tsallis entropy (order vs. noise), and ATR (volatility scale) — into a confidence-weighted regime call. When it fires TREND_FOLLOWING, grid deployment pauses automatically, without a user confirmation step. Earlier versions of this page reported simulated returns; we've withdrawn them while we rebuild our simulator with stricter assumptions.

Registry ID
FIS-LESSON-01
Audience
CoinRoc users · Financial professionals
Key finding
Simulated results withdrawn
Channel
yodacom.com/research
Read lesson
Published July 2026

Why a Quality Grade Must Reflect What You Can Actually Trade

Two methodology corrections to CoinRoc's asset grading system: active-period return instead of blended return, and a liquidity-aware grade cap. Why a strong backtest can now result in a lower published grade — and why that is correct. Written for advisors and RIAs evaluating grid strategies for client due diligence.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Audience
Financial advisors, RIAs, wealth managers
Key finding
Active-period return replaces blended return
Novel finding
32/97 assets flagged thin liquidity; 0 majors capped
Read advisor article
Published July 2026

Execution-Aware Grading: Why CoinRoc Measures What You Can Actually Trade

Full methodology paper (Sections 1–6): the blended-return bias and the liquidity-optimism bias, diagnosed and corrected, with complete findings on the 97-symbol catalog. Sections 7–10 (favorable-conditions affirmative case) are held pending a separate review.

Author
Han Kessel · Yodacom Research
Window
Year 2 blind forward test, retail-binance-us tier
Key finding
Active-period return replaces blended return
Novel finding
Composite liquidity score + B- grade cap
Read methodology
Published July 2026

Crypto's Boring Era Needs a Boring Layer Nobody's Building

Banks are quietly rebuilding treasury and payments infrastructure around condition-gated automatic settlement — money that moves itself when a condition is met. SSL made the internet boring enough to trust with money. Programmable settlement needs the same boring, invisible check, running the instant before the money moves. A reaction to a Blockchain Income Report Substack piece on stablecoins, CBDCs, and tokenized bank deposits.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Reaction essay / market commentary
Key argument
Condition checks, not just faster rails, are the missing layer
Registry ID
LANDO-PRESIGATE-BORING-LAYER-ESSAY-01
Read the essay
Published July 2026

The Internet Just Shipped a “Pay” Button for AI Agents. Nobody Wired in the Pause.

The Linux Foundation's new x402 Foundation standardizes how AI agents pay over HTTP — a genuinely good, 40-member coalition of card networks, hyperscalers, and stablecoin ecosystems. The protocol's own spec explicitly puts client-side budget management and session handling out of scope. That's the gap Presigate's pre-flight gate sits in: not how the payment happens, but whether right now is a sane moment for it to clear.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Reaction essay / market commentary
Key argument
x402 standardizes how agents pay; Presigate answers whether they should, right now
Registry ID
LANDO-X402-ESSAY-01
Read the essay
Published July 2026

When Machines Transact: Why the Stablecoin Behind an AI Agent’s Payment Is a Risk Decision, Not a Technical Default

x402 today is functionally a USDC rail settling on Base and Solana. But peg-deviation risk (USDC/SVB, March 2023) and issuer/regulatory-state risk (USDT/MiCA delisting, July 2026) are two distinct failure modes that no agent-payment protocol currently checks before it settles. A four-signal framework for the pre-flight check that's missing, tied to Presigate's market-condition-gate positioning.

Author
Lando · Yodacom Research
Type
Thought leadership / strategic
Key argument
Peg-deviation risk and issuer/regulatory-state risk are distinct, both unchecked pre-settlement
Registry ID
LANDO-STABLECOIN-AGENTS-YODACOM-01
Read the article
In progress Pub target · Q2 2026

Execution Cost Impact on Crypto Grid Trading Portfolios

A 2.5-year walk-forward study of crypto grid trading as a candidate sleeve in traditional 60/40 portfolios. Tests the hypothesis that execution cost tier dominates strategy selection at the portfolio level. Pre-registered hypotheses, honest negative results where applicable, cost-tier sensitivity analysis across six execution venues.

Principal researcher
Jeremy J. Black
Window
2022 Q4 – 2025 Q1
Venues tested
6
Peer review
Pending
Abstract coming Q2 2026
Planned

Sortino Sensitivity: Does Downside-Deviation-Aware Rating Improve Grid Trading Outcomes?

Companion paper to Gridium. Re-runs the walk-forward analysis using a four-component grader (ETS, Grid Return, Calmar, Sortino) closer to CoinRoc's production rating weights. Tests whether downside-deviation-aware selection meaningfully changes per-quarter sleeve composition and risk-adjusted outcomes.

Research updates

Be notified when papers publish.

One email per paper. No marketing, no drip sequences, no calendar pitches. Unsubscribe removes you instantly.