Figure 2 — Yodacom Research | Paper 2: Inventory Circuit Breaker
Bull Fold Gate Analysis: drawdownFromPeak at 35% Inventory Threshold Breach
Distribution of portfolio drawdown-from-peak at the bar where the 35% inventory threshold is first breached, across all 28 confirmed bull folds (buy-and-hold > +50%, test years 2020–2021).
The vertical dashed line marks the −15% gate threshold. Zero observations cross it — confirming the v5 gate blocks all spurious bull-year fires.
Key finding: In every bull fold, the portfolio drawdown-from-peak at the moment of 35% inventory threshold breach ranges from −2% to −14% — entirely below the −15% gate.
The gate correctly reads bull corrections as "not yet a confirmed directional bear." Zero spurious fires in 28 bull folds.
Bull folds: drawdown at 35% threshold breach
v5 gate threshold (−15%)
"Safe zone" (above gate) — no fire possible
Source: Paper 2 Section 5.2 and inventory-threshold-v5-validation-2026-04-28.md. 28 confirmed bull folds (B&H > +50%, 2020–2021).
drawdownFromPeak values estimated from paper text (range: −2% to −14%); individual fold values not tabulated in source data —
distribution shown is illustrative of reported range, not raw observed values per fold. Gate threshold (−15%) is exact.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Research and educational use only.